It has been three years since I read my first RFCs on Web Real-Time Communications. In that time the industry has evolved from concept to products from over 500 companies.
Most of these companies have built products that mimic the SIP-based collaboration tools that started to appear 15 years ago.
GENBAND is one of a few that are focused on and have invested tens of millions of dollars in highly scalable and highly reliable Over-The-Top solutions.
OTT-everywhere will dominate 2015. That is the mega trend that will drive these specific trends:
1) Large carriers and large enterprises are engaged in trials and early production implementations of WebRTC. This will expand in 2015. What this really means is that awareness of WebRTC has moved from the technology operations to the business operations at both service providers and large enterprises.
2) Large web-based operations are now adopting WebRTC. GENBAND’s fring solution has grown to 50 Million users, Skype now has 300 Million users, and recently Facebook began offering WebRTC video and collaboration tools in their message interface. There are 1.35 Billion facebook users or approximately 18% of the population of the world. This phenomenon will accelerate.
4) Service providers will continue to lose their highest revenue communications solutions to Over-The-Top (OTT) players unless they respond. Some service providers are getting out in front of this trend. The evidence for this trend is that GENBAND now has trials underway with service providers that account for over a billion subscribers. That is roughly 14% of the global population.
5) Average Revenue Per Subscriber (ARPU) will require an asterisk (*) in 2015 and beyond. The reason is that as OTT expands service providers will expand their offers to include OTT in order to maintain their relationship with their “users.” This will cause a decline in ARPU with a potential increase in users. The metric Average Revenue Per Identity (ARPI) will become the new measure that service providers and web-based companies will use to measure success. Financially, this will have a significant impact on service provider valuations.
I’d love to hear what you’re predicting for next year, and to continuing the discussion, design and development of the next-next generation of RTC…Happy New Year!